Losing immigrant workers would mean losing farms, cows and milk, according to a survey on the effects of foreign-born labor on dairy farms that was released June 4 by the National Milk Producers Federation.

The estimated effect of a 50 percent loss of the immigrant workforce on America's dairy farms would mean about 2,266 farms would go out of business, cow numbers would drop by more than 670,000 nationwide and milk production would drop by 14.7 billion pounds, the survey said.

"We estimated that with a 50 percent loss in immigrant labor, we would expect to see an increase in milk prices at retail of just about 31 percent," said Parr Rosson, co-author of the survey conducted by the AgriLife Research Center at Texas AandM University.

The research team contacted 5,005 dairy farms across the country and received 2,071 responses from 47 states. Half the farms employed at least one immigrant worker.

An estimated 41.4 percent of all dairy workers in the United States are foreign-born, with nearly 98 percent of those originating from Mexico.

About 62 percent of the country's milk supply comes from farms using immigrant labor, researchers estimated.

"It's not a secret that from farm to fork, foreign workers are crucial to feeding America," said Jerry Kozak, National Milk Producers Federation president and chief executive officer.

The study was a way to quantify information that until now has been anecdotal, he said.

"I think we view the survey as verifying what we already thought and what producers had been telling us," Kozak said.

The study extrapolated effects based on hypothetical immigrant-labor losses of 50 percent and 100 percent.

A 100 percent loss of immigrant labor would reduce the national herd size by an estimated 1.34 million cows, decrease farm numbers by 4,532 and reduce milk production by about 29.5 million pounds.

The average 2008 herd size in the study group was 1,344 cows, but Kozak said losses of immigrant workers would affect farms of all sizes. He used as an example a Minnesota farmer who milks 150 cows with two immigrant laborers.

"What he told me in a recent conversation was that if he loses one or both of the two laborers - he doesn't have children to work the farm - that he'd have to sell his farm," Kozak said.

It's important that agriculture-related jobs legislation be passed soon because of its significant effect on the economy, he said.

The study looked at job losses in agricultural fields and estimated that a 50 percent reduction in the immigrant workforce would result in a $11.2 billion loss to the economy. More than $6 billion of that would be losses to farmers, but about $3 billion would be lost sales for dairy-support businesses such as feed, fuel, transportation and other service providers.

Labor shortages already are being seen on dairy farms, Rosson said.

Over the past three years, about 20 percent of the farms had experienced labor shortages of, on average, 26 percent. In 2009, 18.7 percent of the dairy farms are anticipating a labor shortage of about 20.2 percent.

The domestic labor force since World War II has been trained to work in an information and technology economy, Rosson said.

"What that has resulted in is a labor gap, and most of our high school graduates in this country don't want to work on the farm," he said.

The study is intended to provide information for policymaking, Kozak said.

"We need help on America's dairies, and we need labor policy to reflect the realities of today's economy," he said.

"Although we don't have specific numbers now, it's clear that the increased enforcement activity in the last two years has created a significant anxiety at the farm level and on our labor force," Kozak said.

Sara Bredesen can be reached at 715-360-7253 or stbrede@gmail.com.